Nebraska @ Oklahoma - 11/01/08, 7:00 p.m. CDT
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- SAM BRADFORD IS WATCHING: Oklahoma's offense is really good. (It's not everywhere you can get insight like that!) But Nebraska learned in Lubbock that if the offense is on the sideline, they can't score. NU has become quite proficient in dominating time of possession, and they will have to be successful with that in Norman. If NU has more than 38 minutes of possession, we may have an upset.
- THE 'HUSKERS ARE DUE: Nebraska has forced one turnover in four games. Usually teams will get more turnovers than that even by accident. If Oklahoma hands NU a couple of turnovers and Nebraska can capitalize, the 'Huskers can overcome the talent deficit.
- THERE IS EXECUTION: When a team is outgunned, it is critical that the outgunned team does not help their opponent out. As new 49'ers coach Mike Singletary would say (in a loud voice), "this isn't a charity!" Nebraska has to hold onto the ball and keep the yellow flags in the referee's pockets for NU to be competitive.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- SPEED KILLS: The Sooners under Bob Stoops love fast players, and they have a bunch of them. Nebraska has been prone to the big play this season, and if the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet give the Sooners the chance, they will gash NU for a number of home runs.
- NEBRASKA'S OFFENSES SPUTTERS: There's points to be had against the OU defense, but Nebraska has to take them. If NU's offense doesn't click, or if offensive coordinator Shawn Watson tries to get too cute, then Nebraska will struggle to keep up with Oklahoma's scoring explosion.
- RUDY DOESN'T COME THROUGH: Particularly on defense, NU has been savaged with injuries. With middle linebacker Phillip Dillard out for Saturday, NU will be relying on walkons like Matt Holt and Coelton "I got a safety" Koehler to start or play significant minutes against the Sooners. Those kids are great stories, but they're going to have to come up big against one of the best offenses in the country for NU to make this a game into the fourth quarter.
FEARLESS FORECAST: Oklahoma 49, Nebraska 24.
GBR, baby.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - NU Re-View: Nebraska 32, Baylor 20
THE GOOD ...
- THE COMEBACK: I did not realize until reading the post-game analysis that Nebraska never had a second-half comeback during Bill Callahan's tenure at the helm. Not once. Not even by accident. And it wasn't like Nebraska always had the lead going into the half. NU's third quarter woes had been troubling this season, so to see them come out in the second half and be so successful is another sign of growth.
- HIT 'EM DEEP: For a number of games, NU has made a living with passes 10 yards or shorter. Having such a profile was crying out for attempts to stretch the field. Finally, NU put the deep ball into its' arsenal, being successful once to a wide-open Nate Swift. For Nebraska to continue its' offensive success, the threat of the deep ball has to be present to keep defenses from stacking the short zones and plugging up the bread-and-butter of NU's offense.
- DEFENSIVE ADJUSTMENTS: It's a bit of a corollary to the first point, but it is worth making. Baylor's speed at quarterback and wideout caused Nebraska huge problems at the start of the game. But the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet (Bo, please, in God's name, just hand the stupid things out already) figured out what they were doing, stayed in their lanes, and made Robert Griffin one-dimensional. Once that happened, Nebraska was able to handle Baylor's attack relatively easily.
THE BAD ...
- COUNTING TO ELEVEN: Particularly in the first half, the NU defense had a terrible time having the right personnel on the field. Some of that was caused by Baylor playing games with 12 and 13 players on the field, but some of that was NU being unprepared. Particularly going into next week, breakdowns like that will result in quick points for the bad guys.
- YELLOW TROUBLE: NU cannot get away from catastrophic penalties. Nebraska helped Baylor keep drives alive with 15-yard infractions, most egregiously on a roughing the punter penalty that extended a Baylor drive. This problem isn't new and, while some of the calls may be borderline, it's consistent enough to be a huge problem.
- TURNOVER DROUGHT: Once again, Nebraska did not force a turnover. Some of that was expected, as Griffin had not thrown an interception all year. But Nebraska got good pressure and, especially in the second half, penetration from the front four against the running game. While being -3 in the turnover ratio and winning by 12 is impressive by itself, it also makes the game that much more difficult to win.
... AND THE SOONERS.
Well, now we get the test. The crimson and cream await Nebraska in Norman after hanging 55 points in the first half (!) on Prince's Purples. Nebraska struggled to contain two freshman playmakers against Baylor at home, so it will be very interesting to see how they handle the slew of All-Americans Oklahoma will roll onto the field on Saturday. On the other hand, Oklahoma's defense has been suspect all year, and Nebraska has played better on the road than at home. A victory over Oklahoma is probably unlikely, but a good showing goes a long way in this rebuilding year for the Big Red.
THE BIG PICTURE
There's no question now that Nebraska has an identity on offense, and a clear idea of what they want to do. Nebraska's defense has demonstrated shocking lapses, but also an ability to bear down (particularly in the red zone) and get stops when they need to. This team also has the senior leadership that was critically missing from last year's club. Apparently at halftime of the Baylor game, it was the seniors that led the way to get the team's attention focused in the right place and pave the way for a comeback. It's a credit to those seniors for taking that role, and a credit to the coaching staff to create a culture for that to happen.
THE NEXT GAME
Nebraska @ Oklahoma. The Sooners have become the Red Raiders, in the sense that their defensive strategy is to outscore their opponent. This doesn't necessarily play well into Nebraska's strengths, particularly if Oklahoma focuses on taking Nebraska's short passing game away. This game will likely be the clearest demonstration of a talent gap between the two clubs, which by itself should be enough for a comfortable Oklahoma victory.
GBR, baby.
- THE COMEBACK: I did not realize until reading the post-game analysis that Nebraska never had a second-half comeback during Bill Callahan's tenure at the helm. Not once. Not even by accident. And it wasn't like Nebraska always had the lead going into the half. NU's third quarter woes had been troubling this season, so to see them come out in the second half and be so successful is another sign of growth.
- HIT 'EM DEEP: For a number of games, NU has made a living with passes 10 yards or shorter. Having such a profile was crying out for attempts to stretch the field. Finally, NU put the deep ball into its' arsenal, being successful once to a wide-open Nate Swift. For Nebraska to continue its' offensive success, the threat of the deep ball has to be present to keep defenses from stacking the short zones and plugging up the bread-and-butter of NU's offense.
- DEFENSIVE ADJUSTMENTS: It's a bit of a corollary to the first point, but it is worth making. Baylor's speed at quarterback and wideout caused Nebraska huge problems at the start of the game. But the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet (Bo, please, in God's name, just hand the stupid things out already) figured out what they were doing, stayed in their lanes, and made Robert Griffin one-dimensional. Once that happened, Nebraska was able to handle Baylor's attack relatively easily.
THE BAD ...
- COUNTING TO ELEVEN: Particularly in the first half, the NU defense had a terrible time having the right personnel on the field. Some of that was caused by Baylor playing games with 12 and 13 players on the field, but some of that was NU being unprepared. Particularly going into next week, breakdowns like that will result in quick points for the bad guys.
- YELLOW TROUBLE: NU cannot get away from catastrophic penalties. Nebraska helped Baylor keep drives alive with 15-yard infractions, most egregiously on a roughing the punter penalty that extended a Baylor drive. This problem isn't new and, while some of the calls may be borderline, it's consistent enough to be a huge problem.
- TURNOVER DROUGHT: Once again, Nebraska did not force a turnover. Some of that was expected, as Griffin had not thrown an interception all year. But Nebraska got good pressure and, especially in the second half, penetration from the front four against the running game. While being -3 in the turnover ratio and winning by 12 is impressive by itself, it also makes the game that much more difficult to win.
... AND THE SOONERS.
Well, now we get the test. The crimson and cream await Nebraska in Norman after hanging 55 points in the first half (!) on Prince's Purples. Nebraska struggled to contain two freshman playmakers against Baylor at home, so it will be very interesting to see how they handle the slew of All-Americans Oklahoma will roll onto the field on Saturday. On the other hand, Oklahoma's defense has been suspect all year, and Nebraska has played better on the road than at home. A victory over Oklahoma is probably unlikely, but a good showing goes a long way in this rebuilding year for the Big Red.
THE BIG PICTURE
There's no question now that Nebraska has an identity on offense, and a clear idea of what they want to do. Nebraska's defense has demonstrated shocking lapses, but also an ability to bear down (particularly in the red zone) and get stops when they need to. This team also has the senior leadership that was critically missing from last year's club. Apparently at halftime of the Baylor game, it was the seniors that led the way to get the team's attention focused in the right place and pave the way for a comeback. It's a credit to those seniors for taking that role, and a credit to the coaching staff to create a culture for that to happen.
THE NEXT GAME
Nebraska @ Oklahoma. The Sooners have become the Red Raiders, in the sense that their defensive strategy is to outscore their opponent. This doesn't necessarily play well into Nebraska's strengths, particularly if Oklahoma focuses on taking Nebraska's short passing game away. This game will likely be the clearest demonstration of a talent gap between the two clubs, which by itself should be enough for a comfortable Oklahoma victory.
GBR, baby.
Friday, October 24, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - Happy/Sad, Baylor
Baylor @ Nebraska, 11:30 a.m., 10/25/08
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- THE FRONT SEVEN STAYS DISCIPLINED: Baylor's freshman phenom QB Robert Griffin is the fastest quarterback in the country. It will be critical for the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet to maintain their positioning and not get greedy in a pass rush. Griffin's ability to gouge the 'Huskers increases exponentially if NU defenders bunch up and give him large areas of the field to roam.
- WATSON STAYS BALANCED: Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson had an effective run/pass attempt balance against Iowa State, which led in large part to Nebraska's success. Watson needs to use the same mentality against a legitimate Baylor defense to create good field position and rhythm on offense.
- BOTH HANDS ARE ON THE BALL: NU had a disturbing number of fumbles against an agressive Iowa State defense. Baylor is just as aggressive, and probably needs NU turnovers to compensate for a lack of athletic talent. If Nebraska doesn't give the ball away, they should be able to overwhelm the Bears.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- THE YELLOW COMES OUT: Nebraska cut way back on their penalties against Iowa State in a dominating performance. But if Nebraska gets back to its' undisciplined ways and gives Baylor field position and momentum via the penalty, the Bears are good enough to make NU pay.
- THERE IS ANOTHER HALFTIME HANGOVER: The third quarter has not been kind to NU in the last few games. It will be important for Nebraska to seize control of the momentum in the third quarter, either to maintain a lead or to recover from a first half surprise.
- NEBRASKA BELIEVES THEY "ARE BACK": For the second week in a row, I am concerned about NU not taking an opponent seriously. Much was said about the Iowa State game being a throwback to the "old" Nebraska that could roll out the helmets and clobber teams like Baylor. This year's Nebraska squad cannot do that to this year's Baylor squad. The Bears are a team on the come, and if NU doesn't play with the same focus and intensity that they did against Texas Tech and Iowa State, then we could be back to fretting about bowl eligibility.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nebraska 41, Baylor 17
GBR, baby.
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- THE FRONT SEVEN STAYS DISCIPLINED: Baylor's freshman phenom QB Robert Griffin is the fastest quarterback in the country. It will be critical for the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet to maintain their positioning and not get greedy in a pass rush. Griffin's ability to gouge the 'Huskers increases exponentially if NU defenders bunch up and give him large areas of the field to roam.
- WATSON STAYS BALANCED: Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson had an effective run/pass attempt balance against Iowa State, which led in large part to Nebraska's success. Watson needs to use the same mentality against a legitimate Baylor defense to create good field position and rhythm on offense.
- BOTH HANDS ARE ON THE BALL: NU had a disturbing number of fumbles against an agressive Iowa State defense. Baylor is just as aggressive, and probably needs NU turnovers to compensate for a lack of athletic talent. If Nebraska doesn't give the ball away, they should be able to overwhelm the Bears.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- THE YELLOW COMES OUT: Nebraska cut way back on their penalties against Iowa State in a dominating performance. But if Nebraska gets back to its' undisciplined ways and gives Baylor field position and momentum via the penalty, the Bears are good enough to make NU pay.
- THERE IS ANOTHER HALFTIME HANGOVER: The third quarter has not been kind to NU in the last few games. It will be important for Nebraska to seize control of the momentum in the third quarter, either to maintain a lead or to recover from a first half surprise.
- NEBRASKA BELIEVES THEY "ARE BACK": For the second week in a row, I am concerned about NU not taking an opponent seriously. Much was said about the Iowa State game being a throwback to the "old" Nebraska that could roll out the helmets and clobber teams like Baylor. This year's Nebraska squad cannot do that to this year's Baylor squad. The Bears are a team on the come, and if NU doesn't play with the same focus and intensity that they did against Texas Tech and Iowa State, then we could be back to fretting about bowl eligibility.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nebraska 41, Baylor 17
GBR, baby.
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - NU Re-View: Nebraska 35, Iowa State 7
THE GOOD ...
- DRIVING: Nebraska put a number of sustained drives together against Iowa State. Much has been made of NU's attempt to find an offensive identity, and putting together the Texas Tech and the Iowa State games, apparently they've found one. Use the short pass to set up the run, grind the clock, and keep their offense off the field.
- THE RIGHT BALANCE: When you look at the rushing and receiving totals, it looks like NU is badly unbalanced in favor of the pass. But check out the attempts, and you'll see that it's almost 50/50 in run/pass ratio. It's the attempts, not the yardage, that establishes a balance to an attack. For the first time this season, it appeared that NU stayed with the run even when it wasn't producing immediately.
- WILD 'HUSKER: OK, I'll admit it. Putting Marlon Lucky in a shotgun and giving him the direct snap was a gimmick. But it sure was fun. And it puts the skeleton in place for a lot of other plays to run from that set - plays that opponents in the future will have to take time to scheme for. Plus, how cool is it to call something "Wild 'Husker" in the first place?
THE BAD ...
- THIRD QUARTER WOES: Nebraska struggled yet again coming out of the half. In this game, it looked at bit like NU was comfortable with a lead and let up on the gas pedal a little bit. But it's a disturbingly consistent pattern that needs to be addressed going forward.
- TURNOVERS: Yes, NU finally got their elusive turnover, and yes, a turnover was was ended the game in Nebraska's favor. But NU also left the ball on the ground way too many times, including a turnover at the end of the first half that prevented Nebraska from landing a knockout punch. Ball security is still an issue for this squad, and one that needs to fixed in a hurry.
- PUNTING: Apparently Jake Wesch wasn't the answer. Nebraska's punting game was just as bad against the 'Clones as it has been all season. I know punters and kickers never get the respect, but Iowa State's punter did a great job of establishing field position and putting them in a position to be successful. Unfortunately for ISU, there wasn't much they could do with it.
... AND THE AFTERGLOW.
Iowa State decided this season to go for a "throwback" uniform look - which worked out well for Nebraska, as this game felt very much like a throwback to the time where ISU was a guaranteed win for NU. From the opening quarter, Nebraska was never in jeopardy of losing this contest, even when ISU showed signs of life in the third quarter. Nebraska has now put two solid performances together on the road in conference, which might be more than the previous coaching staff had in four years.
THE BIG PICTURE.
For those of you feeling like Nebraska is "back," please take a deep breath. Iowa State is not the benchmark by which this program should be judged. Yes, this is a good win, and yes, it's a good sign that Nebraska can dominate an inferior opponent. But Nebraska isn't "back," and won't be until they get past the high-water mark they had pre-Black Friday, before the 62-21 loss to Colorado in 2001. All the evidence now points in the right direction, including a bowl game this year and hope for the future that wasn't present after the Missouri debacle. But there's still a long way to go for the Scarlet and Cream.
THE NEXT GAME: Baylor @ Nebraska (-10). Baylor's Robert Griffin is a special talent, and the Bears' defense has played surprisingly well. But apart from Griffin, there's not a lot of talent in green and gold. It's a big ask for Baylor to come to Lincoln to face a Nebraska team that has found a little bit of mojo and identity. Ironically, the road trip may have been a good tonic for Nebraska to get better after back-to-back losses at home. Now we'll see how well Bo Pelini and company handle a little success. Absent overconfidence, Nebraska should have enough to win comfortably. Take the 'Huskers, give the points in this one.
GBR, baby.
- DRIVING: Nebraska put a number of sustained drives together against Iowa State. Much has been made of NU's attempt to find an offensive identity, and putting together the Texas Tech and the Iowa State games, apparently they've found one. Use the short pass to set up the run, grind the clock, and keep their offense off the field.
- THE RIGHT BALANCE: When you look at the rushing and receiving totals, it looks like NU is badly unbalanced in favor of the pass. But check out the attempts, and you'll see that it's almost 50/50 in run/pass ratio. It's the attempts, not the yardage, that establishes a balance to an attack. For the first time this season, it appeared that NU stayed with the run even when it wasn't producing immediately.
- WILD 'HUSKER: OK, I'll admit it. Putting Marlon Lucky in a shotgun and giving him the direct snap was a gimmick. But it sure was fun. And it puts the skeleton in place for a lot of other plays to run from that set - plays that opponents in the future will have to take time to scheme for. Plus, how cool is it to call something "Wild 'Husker" in the first place?
THE BAD ...
- THIRD QUARTER WOES: Nebraska struggled yet again coming out of the half. In this game, it looked at bit like NU was comfortable with a lead and let up on the gas pedal a little bit. But it's a disturbingly consistent pattern that needs to be addressed going forward.
- TURNOVERS: Yes, NU finally got their elusive turnover, and yes, a turnover was was ended the game in Nebraska's favor. But NU also left the ball on the ground way too many times, including a turnover at the end of the first half that prevented Nebraska from landing a knockout punch. Ball security is still an issue for this squad, and one that needs to fixed in a hurry.
- PUNTING: Apparently Jake Wesch wasn't the answer. Nebraska's punting game was just as bad against the 'Clones as it has been all season. I know punters and kickers never get the respect, but Iowa State's punter did a great job of establishing field position and putting them in a position to be successful. Unfortunately for ISU, there wasn't much they could do with it.
... AND THE AFTERGLOW.
Iowa State decided this season to go for a "throwback" uniform look - which worked out well for Nebraska, as this game felt very much like a throwback to the time where ISU was a guaranteed win for NU. From the opening quarter, Nebraska was never in jeopardy of losing this contest, even when ISU showed signs of life in the third quarter. Nebraska has now put two solid performances together on the road in conference, which might be more than the previous coaching staff had in four years.
THE BIG PICTURE.
For those of you feeling like Nebraska is "back," please take a deep breath. Iowa State is not the benchmark by which this program should be judged. Yes, this is a good win, and yes, it's a good sign that Nebraska can dominate an inferior opponent. But Nebraska isn't "back," and won't be until they get past the high-water mark they had pre-Black Friday, before the 62-21 loss to Colorado in 2001. All the evidence now points in the right direction, including a bowl game this year and hope for the future that wasn't present after the Missouri debacle. But there's still a long way to go for the Scarlet and Cream.
THE NEXT GAME: Baylor @ Nebraska (-10). Baylor's Robert Griffin is a special talent, and the Bears' defense has played surprisingly well. But apart from Griffin, there's not a lot of talent in green and gold. It's a big ask for Baylor to come to Lincoln to face a Nebraska team that has found a little bit of mojo and identity. Ironically, the road trip may have been a good tonic for Nebraska to get better after back-to-back losses at home. Now we'll see how well Bo Pelini and company handle a little success. Absent overconfidence, Nebraska should have enough to win comfortably. Take the 'Huskers, give the points in this one.
GBR, baby.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
NU FOOTBALL: Happy/Sad, Iowa State
Nebraska @ Iowa State, 11:30 a.m., 10/18/08
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- FIRST DOWN GOES WELL: One of the keys for Nebraska's success against Texas Tech was getting good yardage on first down. An offense in second-and-five is much more dangerous than one in second-and-thirteen. Nebraska may have found an identity as a ball control offense, and to do that well they will have to succeed on first down.
- NEBRASKA GETS A LEAD: No wonder this losing streak has seemed so long. Nebraska hasn't even taken the lead on an opponent since the end of the New Mexico State game, back in the late days of the Carter administration. There's only so many times that a team can get off the mat, and it would be really good for NU's confidence to actually get a lead on the 'Clones.
- THE 'CLONES GET TURNED OVER: I've been asking exactly who Bo Pelini has to beat up in a dark alley for Nebraska to finally get a turnover. For three straight weeks, opponents have played a near-flawless game against NU's defense. Some of that is a lack of a pass rush to force the issue, but some of it is just back luck for NU. If the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet can turn ISU over, the defense can get some of their mojo back.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- THE 'HUSKERS ARE OVERCONFIDENT: I know it's a strange thing to think about after a loss, but the whole week before Texas Tech NU was hearing about how they were going to be slaughtered. They overperformed, don't let anyone tell you different, and there's a danger that NU could believe they don't need to work as hard to beat ISU. I think it's unlikely Pelini will allow that to happen, but with a group of college kids, it is certainly possible.
- AMES REMAINS A SNAKEPIT: Nebraska has a decade's worth of history struggling along the banks of the Skunk River. While I think NU has the superior weapons in this contest, Nebraska is going to have to put the kind of effort on the line they did in Lubbock to be successful. Expect this game to be decided in the fourth quarter.
- A DEFECTION RALLIES THE TROOPS: ISU backup quarterback Phillip Bates abruptly left the team last week. Ordinarily, that would signal problems, but it could be that Bates was a bad influence in the locker room. If that's the case, and the team rallies around their starting QB Austin Arnaud, then you could see an added degree of focus from the 'Clones.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nebraska 38, Iowa State 27
GBR, baby.
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- FIRST DOWN GOES WELL: One of the keys for Nebraska's success against Texas Tech was getting good yardage on first down. An offense in second-and-five is much more dangerous than one in second-and-thirteen. Nebraska may have found an identity as a ball control offense, and to do that well they will have to succeed on first down.
- NEBRASKA GETS A LEAD: No wonder this losing streak has seemed so long. Nebraska hasn't even taken the lead on an opponent since the end of the New Mexico State game, back in the late days of the Carter administration. There's only so many times that a team can get off the mat, and it would be really good for NU's confidence to actually get a lead on the 'Clones.
- THE 'CLONES GET TURNED OVER: I've been asking exactly who Bo Pelini has to beat up in a dark alley for Nebraska to finally get a turnover. For three straight weeks, opponents have played a near-flawless game against NU's defense. Some of that is a lack of a pass rush to force the issue, but some of it is just back luck for NU. If the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet can turn ISU over, the defense can get some of their mojo back.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- THE 'HUSKERS ARE OVERCONFIDENT: I know it's a strange thing to think about after a loss, but the whole week before Texas Tech NU was hearing about how they were going to be slaughtered. They overperformed, don't let anyone tell you different, and there's a danger that NU could believe they don't need to work as hard to beat ISU. I think it's unlikely Pelini will allow that to happen, but with a group of college kids, it is certainly possible.
- AMES REMAINS A SNAKEPIT: Nebraska has a decade's worth of history struggling along the banks of the Skunk River. While I think NU has the superior weapons in this contest, Nebraska is going to have to put the kind of effort on the line they did in Lubbock to be successful. Expect this game to be decided in the fourth quarter.
- A DEFECTION RALLIES THE TROOPS: ISU backup quarterback Phillip Bates abruptly left the team last week. Ordinarily, that would signal problems, but it could be that Bates was a bad influence in the locker room. If that's the case, and the team rallies around their starting QB Austin Arnaud, then you could see an added degree of focus from the 'Clones.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nebraska 38, Iowa State 27
GBR, baby.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - NU Re-View: Texas Tech 37, Nebraska 31 (OT)
THE GOOD ...
- THAT CLICKING SOUND YOU HEAR ... is the Nebraska offense finally getting into some kind of gear. Amidst the post-Missouri teeth gnashing last week was a concern that Nebraska had no offensive identity. Well, I believe one has been located now. Statistically, Nebraska still showed no kind of balance between run and pass. But utilizing the short passing game (and the dreaded Billy C "West Coast Offense") Nebraska was able to keep the Red Raiders off the field. All of Nebraska's success on Saturday flowed from their ability to sustain drives, and that was predicated in large measure on first down successes.
- PLUS 64. As in, the margin of defeat for Nebraska this time was 64 points better than last time they went to Lubbock. It is a measure of the depths to which the Nebraska program has fallen that an ardent fan like yours truly can honestly say after a gutting loss like Saturday that he's pretty happy with things. But it's true. I was amongst the masses of fans and analysts who thought Nebraska would get embarassed again. Shows what I know.
- "I'M A FIGHTER." In Pelini's post-Missouri press conference, he told us he was a fighter, and that his team would continue to fight. Well, Judas Priest, was he right. Husker Nation, scarred with the images of last years' collapses, felt a horrible sense of deja vu. In addition to showing Nebraska could stand toe-to-toe with a top-ten team on their turf, Nebraska also showed a fighting spirit that 'Husker fan had been longing for. Down 28-10, NU had every reason to drop their heads and give up another one. Instead, they fought and scrapped their way back and were one play away from a great win.
THE BAD ...
- "NOT GOOD ENOUGH." That was Pelini's assessment of the team at halftime, and it holds true after the game. It was a great performance, but at the end of the day Nebraska is still 3-3, and 0-2 in conference. Don't forget, Billy C had a number of close calls against good opponents, such as #15 Texas Tech in '04 and #5 Texas in '05. This was a good get-well game for Nebraska after last week's disaster. But just playing close isn't going to get the job done. Pelini & Co. have to start winning these games. There's plenty of time, and plenty of reason to hope. But there's still work to be done.
- MISTAKES, AND LACK THEREOF. Obviously, Joe Ganz's interception is the focal point of this game. But keep in mind, Nebraska hasn't gotten a turnover from an opponent since the 4:54 mark of the third quarter against New Mexico State. Think about how Saturday's game against TTU would have gone had NU knocked the ball loose once or twice. Think about how the Missouri game last week would have gone if Chase Daniel would have looked like he did Saturday against Oklahoma State.
- MISPLACED AGGRESSION. Far be it from me to second guess Bo Pelini, but, well, what are 'blogs for if not that? In the second quarter, Nebraska had a fourth down and an opportunity to get points. Pelini elected to go for it, and Quentin Castille got stuffed. Now, admittedly, NU should be able to get a yard. And, in fairness, Castille didn't fumble, which is progress for him. But if NU kicks the field goal and gets the game to 17-10, how does it shake out from there? On the other side, when NU scores at the end of regulation to make the game 31-30, where's Pelini's aggression? You've got the crowd out of the game, and you've been moving the ball at will on the Red Raider defense. Go for two, and win the game in regulation on the road.
... AND THE MORAL VICTORY.
"We're not about moral victories," Pelini said in his post-game press conference. Don't believe the cliches, this was a moral victory and one Nebraska desperately needed. After Missouri, some loudmouthed 'Husker observers (two thumbs at this guy) opined about the possibility of a 3-9 campaign for the Big Red. While still possible, it seems far less likely. In fairness to me, nothing NU showed this season would have led you to believe Nebraska was capable of a performance like Saturday's, on the road for the first time, in a hostile environment. The question now is, can they do it again?
THE BIG PICTURE
College football is a mercurial game. A team can look dominant one week, and very average the next (see, e.g., Tigers, Missouri). Do not be fooled into thinking that 7-5 or 8-4 is in the bag for this group of 'Huskers. A loss to Iowa State next week still puts Nebraska at 3-4 and scrambling for bowl eligibility. Having said that, Pelini & Co. got this team focused and ready to play the best game of their season the week after playing the worst game of their season. They've shown they can handle adversity. Now, let's see if they can handle just a little success, even of the moral victory variety.
GBR, baby.
- THAT CLICKING SOUND YOU HEAR ... is the Nebraska offense finally getting into some kind of gear. Amidst the post-Missouri teeth gnashing last week was a concern that Nebraska had no offensive identity. Well, I believe one has been located now. Statistically, Nebraska still showed no kind of balance between run and pass. But utilizing the short passing game (and the dreaded Billy C "West Coast Offense") Nebraska was able to keep the Red Raiders off the field. All of Nebraska's success on Saturday flowed from their ability to sustain drives, and that was predicated in large measure on first down successes.
- PLUS 64. As in, the margin of defeat for Nebraska this time was 64 points better than last time they went to Lubbock. It is a measure of the depths to which the Nebraska program has fallen that an ardent fan like yours truly can honestly say after a gutting loss like Saturday that he's pretty happy with things. But it's true. I was amongst the masses of fans and analysts who thought Nebraska would get embarassed again. Shows what I know.
- "I'M A FIGHTER." In Pelini's post-Missouri press conference, he told us he was a fighter, and that his team would continue to fight. Well, Judas Priest, was he right. Husker Nation, scarred with the images of last years' collapses, felt a horrible sense of deja vu. In addition to showing Nebraska could stand toe-to-toe with a top-ten team on their turf, Nebraska also showed a fighting spirit that 'Husker fan had been longing for. Down 28-10, NU had every reason to drop their heads and give up another one. Instead, they fought and scrapped their way back and were one play away from a great win.
THE BAD ...
- "NOT GOOD ENOUGH." That was Pelini's assessment of the team at halftime, and it holds true after the game. It was a great performance, but at the end of the day Nebraska is still 3-3, and 0-2 in conference. Don't forget, Billy C had a number of close calls against good opponents, such as #15 Texas Tech in '04 and #5 Texas in '05. This was a good get-well game for Nebraska after last week's disaster. But just playing close isn't going to get the job done. Pelini & Co. have to start winning these games. There's plenty of time, and plenty of reason to hope. But there's still work to be done.
- MISTAKES, AND LACK THEREOF. Obviously, Joe Ganz's interception is the focal point of this game. But keep in mind, Nebraska hasn't gotten a turnover from an opponent since the 4:54 mark of the third quarter against New Mexico State. Think about how Saturday's game against TTU would have gone had NU knocked the ball loose once or twice. Think about how the Missouri game last week would have gone if Chase Daniel would have looked like he did Saturday against Oklahoma State.
- MISPLACED AGGRESSION. Far be it from me to second guess Bo Pelini, but, well, what are 'blogs for if not that? In the second quarter, Nebraska had a fourth down and an opportunity to get points. Pelini elected to go for it, and Quentin Castille got stuffed. Now, admittedly, NU should be able to get a yard. And, in fairness, Castille didn't fumble, which is progress for him. But if NU kicks the field goal and gets the game to 17-10, how does it shake out from there? On the other side, when NU scores at the end of regulation to make the game 31-30, where's Pelini's aggression? You've got the crowd out of the game, and you've been moving the ball at will on the Red Raider defense. Go for two, and win the game in regulation on the road.
... AND THE MORAL VICTORY.
"We're not about moral victories," Pelini said in his post-game press conference. Don't believe the cliches, this was a moral victory and one Nebraska desperately needed. After Missouri, some loudmouthed 'Husker observers (two thumbs at this guy) opined about the possibility of a 3-9 campaign for the Big Red. While still possible, it seems far less likely. In fairness to me, nothing NU showed this season would have led you to believe Nebraska was capable of a performance like Saturday's, on the road for the first time, in a hostile environment. The question now is, can they do it again?
THE BIG PICTURE
College football is a mercurial game. A team can look dominant one week, and very average the next (see, e.g., Tigers, Missouri). Do not be fooled into thinking that 7-5 or 8-4 is in the bag for this group of 'Huskers. A loss to Iowa State next week still puts Nebraska at 3-4 and scrambling for bowl eligibility. Having said that, Pelini & Co. got this team focused and ready to play the best game of their season the week after playing the worst game of their season. They've shown they can handle adversity. Now, let's see if they can handle just a little success, even of the moral victory variety.
GBR, baby.
Monday, October 6, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - Missouri 52, Nebraska 17
THE GOOD ...
- MISSOURI: Let's take the time to acknowledge a legitimate Top-5 team we saw at Memorial Stadium on Saturday night. I do not recall seeing a more ruthlessly efficient team on offense. The Tigers executed everything they needed to, and did not make the mistakes that would have given NU a glimmer of hope, or at least a little traction.
- PRESS CONFERENCE HONESTY: Bo Pelini, to his credit, took the responsibility for the loss on his shoulders, stating the obvious about NU being out-coached and out-played. He said it wouldn't happen again. Unfortunately, the product on the field leaves no real reason to believe him.
- THE WEATHER: It was a beautiful night on Saturday to watch a game. Seriously, that's all I've got, in terms of "goods" for NU.
THE BAD ...
- OUTCLASSED: Missouri was clearly the better team, so Nebraska's only hope was to get a break or two and keep the game close. Nothing of the sort happened. Nebraska kept drawing flags (although more on that in a moment). They did not turn Missouri over, just like they didn't turn Virginia Tech over. The best performance the we-may-never-call-them-Blackshirts had was forcing a field goal - Missouri didn't take the cellophane off their punter the entire game. Missouri dominated Nebraska in a way that hasn't been seen since the 2002 Rose Bowl against Miami. None of the Callahan-era games was this bad.
- LIMITED OFFENSE: Early in the season, I was wondering why NU was not running the ball, and giving all the reasons why the run is important. I'm becoming convinced the reason they aren't running is simply because they cannot. Same for any kind of down-field passing to stretch the field. NU's offense is limited to screens, Ganz's scrambling, and quick-hitting pass plays. And if that's all NU can do, they're pretty easy to stop.
- BAD ZEBRA DAY: I am the last guy to pick on the officials, and they had no bearing on the outcome of the game. But it did seem like some soft penalties early. And I have yet to get an answer as to why, at the end of the first half, an NU receiver was shoved out of bounds by a Missouri defender, and the official directed the clock to run.
... AND THE GRIM FUTURE.
If the Virginia Tech game showed Nebraska isn't ready for prime-time, then the Missouri game showed Nebraska isn't even ready for late-night TV. NU has played hard in all five games, that's not in question. But they haven't played smart, and they haven't played well. Can Pelini get that out of the players? We haven't seen it yet. Cast your eyes down the schedule upcoming, based on what we've seen so far. The games at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma have 40-point losses written all over them. Iowa State in Ames had the Jayhawks on the ropes. Colorado has played well at times this season. If we chalk Texas Tech and Oklahoma up as losses, that means NU must win three of the following five games to get to .500 and go to a bowl: at Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, at Kansas State, and Colorado. All five of those teams are better than the three teams Nebraska has beaten so far. NU desperately needs something good to happen. It's almost assuredly not going to be in Lubbock, and Ames has been a snakepit for Nebraska the last few years. It is entirely possible for Nebraska to be 3-4 coming home to an improved Baylor squad, needing to go 3-1 out to get to .500 for the season. An eerie similarity to year one - and year four - of the Callahan era, don't you think?
THE NEXT GAME
Don't look now, but the "air raid" Red Raiders have been running the ball effectively this year. Texas Tech is going to look a lot like Virginia Tech and Missouri, and NU is going to have to come up with something better than the gimmicky three-man-down plan they tried with Missouri. Texas Tech is not as talented as Missouri, but this is also Nebraska's first road game under a rookie head coach after reeling from the worst home loss since 1955. Four years ago, I think most 'Husker fans were relishing the chance to come back to Lubbock and repay Mike Leach for the 70-10 debacle. Now, they might be tempted to find some yardwork to do Saturday afternoon rather than watch the contest.
GBR, baby.
- MISSOURI: Let's take the time to acknowledge a legitimate Top-5 team we saw at Memorial Stadium on Saturday night. I do not recall seeing a more ruthlessly efficient team on offense. The Tigers executed everything they needed to, and did not make the mistakes that would have given NU a glimmer of hope, or at least a little traction.
- PRESS CONFERENCE HONESTY: Bo Pelini, to his credit, took the responsibility for the loss on his shoulders, stating the obvious about NU being out-coached and out-played. He said it wouldn't happen again. Unfortunately, the product on the field leaves no real reason to believe him.
- THE WEATHER: It was a beautiful night on Saturday to watch a game. Seriously, that's all I've got, in terms of "goods" for NU.
THE BAD ...
- OUTCLASSED: Missouri was clearly the better team, so Nebraska's only hope was to get a break or two and keep the game close. Nothing of the sort happened. Nebraska kept drawing flags (although more on that in a moment). They did not turn Missouri over, just like they didn't turn Virginia Tech over. The best performance the we-may-never-call-them-Blackshirts had was forcing a field goal - Missouri didn't take the cellophane off their punter the entire game. Missouri dominated Nebraska in a way that hasn't been seen since the 2002 Rose Bowl against Miami. None of the Callahan-era games was this bad.
- LIMITED OFFENSE: Early in the season, I was wondering why NU was not running the ball, and giving all the reasons why the run is important. I'm becoming convinced the reason they aren't running is simply because they cannot. Same for any kind of down-field passing to stretch the field. NU's offense is limited to screens, Ganz's scrambling, and quick-hitting pass plays. And if that's all NU can do, they're pretty easy to stop.
- BAD ZEBRA DAY: I am the last guy to pick on the officials, and they had no bearing on the outcome of the game. But it did seem like some soft penalties early. And I have yet to get an answer as to why, at the end of the first half, an NU receiver was shoved out of bounds by a Missouri defender, and the official directed the clock to run.
... AND THE GRIM FUTURE.
If the Virginia Tech game showed Nebraska isn't ready for prime-time, then the Missouri game showed Nebraska isn't even ready for late-night TV. NU has played hard in all five games, that's not in question. But they haven't played smart, and they haven't played well. Can Pelini get that out of the players? We haven't seen it yet. Cast your eyes down the schedule upcoming, based on what we've seen so far. The games at Texas Tech and at Oklahoma have 40-point losses written all over them. Iowa State in Ames had the Jayhawks on the ropes. Colorado has played well at times this season. If we chalk Texas Tech and Oklahoma up as losses, that means NU must win three of the following five games to get to .500 and go to a bowl: at Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas, at Kansas State, and Colorado. All five of those teams are better than the three teams Nebraska has beaten so far. NU desperately needs something good to happen. It's almost assuredly not going to be in Lubbock, and Ames has been a snakepit for Nebraska the last few years. It is entirely possible for Nebraska to be 3-4 coming home to an improved Baylor squad, needing to go 3-1 out to get to .500 for the season. An eerie similarity to year one - and year four - of the Callahan era, don't you think?
THE NEXT GAME
Don't look now, but the "air raid" Red Raiders have been running the ball effectively this year. Texas Tech is going to look a lot like Virginia Tech and Missouri, and NU is going to have to come up with something better than the gimmicky three-man-down plan they tried with Missouri. Texas Tech is not as talented as Missouri, but this is also Nebraska's first road game under a rookie head coach after reeling from the worst home loss since 1955. Four years ago, I think most 'Husker fans were relishing the chance to come back to Lubbock and repay Mike Leach for the 70-10 debacle. Now, they might be tempted to find some yardwork to do Saturday afternoon rather than watch the contest.
GBR, baby.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
NU FOOTBALL - Happy/Sad, Missouri
Missouri @ Nebraska, 10/04/08, 8:00 p.m. CST
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- Nebraska has at least 40% of their plays as rushing attempts by running backs. I think it's safe to say at this point of the season that Nebraska is not going to be a dominant running team between the tackles. But Nebraska does not have the personnel to be successful as Texas Tech, throwing the ball two out of every three plays. For offensive coordinator Shawn Watson's schemes to be successful, there has to be a credible threat of a run. If not, bubble screens and play-action passes are far less effective. Whether or not tons of yardage result from the rushing attempts, NU has to pound the rock to be successful on offense. And the one weakness Missouri has is against that kind of run.
- The chains are moving. Mizzou is a quick-strike offense - anyone who saw last year's game in Columbia will remember that. To be successful against Missouri, Nebraska has to be able to eat clock, hold on to the ball, and keep Chase Daniel mining for gold on the sidelines.
- Field position isn't ridiculous for NU. In the two games Nebraska has struggled the most (San Jose State and Virginia Tech), Nebraska's field position compared to their opponents has been abysmal. In some ways, NU's field position will be a result of the above issues, but it is very important that Nebraska flip the field, not give Missouri's offense a short field, and not be forced to go 70 or 80 yards to score every time.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- Missouri gets ahead early. Nebraska showed a lot of heart last week in coming back against Virginia Tech. But the Hokies aren't the Tigers. If NU gets behind early against Missouri, the danger of the floodgates opening and the game getting ugly in a hurry are real. It is imperative that Nebraska is no worse than one score down at halftime.
- Tiger wideouts are running free. I suspect NU will be in a lot of nickel and dime coverages on Saturday. Missouri's offense is predicated on a quick drop and throw when they pass, meaning pressure on Daniel is very difficult. If Nebraska's secondary can be physical with Missouri's receivers on the line of scrimmage, they can set a tone and disrupt the timing of the Tigers' offense.
- Nebraska gets no turnovers. Make no mistake, Missouri is a better team on both sides of the ball than Nebraska. While Nebraska matches up fairly well with Missouri (questionable MU defense versus questionable NU offense, strong MU offense versus strong NU defense), the critical advantage for Nebraska is the Sea of Red. If Nebraska can turn Missouri over, particularly early, and keep the crowd involved and pressuring the Tigers, the elements of an upset are present.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Missouri 38, Nebraska 30
GBR, baby.
YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- Nebraska has at least 40% of their plays as rushing attempts by running backs. I think it's safe to say at this point of the season that Nebraska is not going to be a dominant running team between the tackles. But Nebraska does not have the personnel to be successful as Texas Tech, throwing the ball two out of every three plays. For offensive coordinator Shawn Watson's schemes to be successful, there has to be a credible threat of a run. If not, bubble screens and play-action passes are far less effective. Whether or not tons of yardage result from the rushing attempts, NU has to pound the rock to be successful on offense. And the one weakness Missouri has is against that kind of run.
- The chains are moving. Mizzou is a quick-strike offense - anyone who saw last year's game in Columbia will remember that. To be successful against Missouri, Nebraska has to be able to eat clock, hold on to the ball, and keep Chase Daniel mining for gold on the sidelines.
- Field position isn't ridiculous for NU. In the two games Nebraska has struggled the most (San Jose State and Virginia Tech), Nebraska's field position compared to their opponents has been abysmal. In some ways, NU's field position will be a result of the above issues, but it is very important that Nebraska flip the field, not give Missouri's offense a short field, and not be forced to go 70 or 80 yards to score every time.
YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- Missouri gets ahead early. Nebraska showed a lot of heart last week in coming back against Virginia Tech. But the Hokies aren't the Tigers. If NU gets behind early against Missouri, the danger of the floodgates opening and the game getting ugly in a hurry are real. It is imperative that Nebraska is no worse than one score down at halftime.
- Tiger wideouts are running free. I suspect NU will be in a lot of nickel and dime coverages on Saturday. Missouri's offense is predicated on a quick drop and throw when they pass, meaning pressure on Daniel is very difficult. If Nebraska's secondary can be physical with Missouri's receivers on the line of scrimmage, they can set a tone and disrupt the timing of the Tigers' offense.
- Nebraska gets no turnovers. Make no mistake, Missouri is a better team on both sides of the ball than Nebraska. While Nebraska matches up fairly well with Missouri (questionable MU defense versus questionable NU offense, strong MU offense versus strong NU defense), the critical advantage for Nebraska is the Sea of Red. If Nebraska can turn Missouri over, particularly early, and keep the crowd involved and pressuring the Tigers, the elements of an upset are present.
FEARLESS PREDICTION: Missouri 38, Nebraska 30
GBR, baby.
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