NU FOOTBALL: Happy/Sad, Iowa State

Nebraska @ Iowa State, 11:30 a.m., 10/18/08

YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- FIRST DOWN GOES WELL: One of the keys for Nebraska's success against Texas Tech was getting good yardage on first down. An offense in second-and-five is much more dangerous than one in second-and-thirteen. Nebraska may have found an identity as a ball control offense, and to do that well they will have to succeed on first down.
- NEBRASKA GETS A LEAD: No wonder this losing streak has seemed so long. Nebraska hasn't even taken the lead on an opponent since the end of the New Mexico State game, back in the late days of the Carter administration. There's only so many times that a team can get off the mat, and it would be really good for NU's confidence to actually get a lead on the 'Clones.
- THE 'CLONES GET TURNED OVER: I've been asking exactly who Bo Pelini has to beat up in a dark alley for Nebraska to finally get a turnover. For three straight weeks, opponents have played a near-flawless game against NU's defense. Some of that is a lack of a pass rush to force the issue, but some of it is just back luck for NU. If the we-can't-call-them-Blackshirts-yet can turn ISU over, the defense can get some of their mojo back.

YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- THE 'HUSKERS ARE OVERCONFIDENT: I know it's a strange thing to think about after a loss, but the whole week before Texas Tech NU was hearing about how they were going to be slaughtered. They overperformed, don't let anyone tell you different, and there's a danger that NU could believe they don't need to work as hard to beat ISU. I think it's unlikely Pelini will allow that to happen, but with a group of college kids, it is certainly possible.
- AMES REMAINS A SNAKEPIT: Nebraska has a decade's worth of history struggling along the banks of the Skunk River. While I think NU has the superior weapons in this contest, Nebraska is going to have to put the kind of effort on the line they did in Lubbock to be successful. Expect this game to be decided in the fourth quarter.
- A DEFECTION RALLIES THE TROOPS: ISU backup quarterback Phillip Bates abruptly left the team last week. Ordinarily, that would signal problems, but it could be that Bates was a bad influence in the locker room. If that's the case, and the team rallies around their starting QB Austin Arnaud, then you could see an added degree of focus from the 'Clones.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Nebraska 38, Iowa State 27

GBR, baby.