NU FOOTBALL - Happy/Sad, Missouri

Missouri @ Nebraska, 10/04/08, 8:00 p.m. CST

YOU'LL BE HAPPY IF ...
- Nebraska has at least 40% of their plays as rushing attempts by running backs. I think it's safe to say at this point of the season that Nebraska is not going to be a dominant running team between the tackles. But Nebraska does not have the personnel to be successful as Texas Tech, throwing the ball two out of every three plays. For offensive coordinator Shawn Watson's schemes to be successful, there has to be a credible threat of a run. If not, bubble screens and play-action passes are far less effective. Whether or not tons of yardage result from the rushing attempts, NU has to pound the rock to be successful on offense. And the one weakness Missouri has is against that kind of run.
- The chains are moving. Mizzou is a quick-strike offense - anyone who saw last year's game in Columbia will remember that. To be successful against Missouri, Nebraska has to be able to eat clock, hold on to the ball, and keep Chase Daniel mining for gold on the sidelines.
- Field position isn't ridiculous for NU. In the two games Nebraska has struggled the most (San Jose State and Virginia Tech), Nebraska's field position compared to their opponents has been abysmal. In some ways, NU's field position will be a result of the above issues, but it is very important that Nebraska flip the field, not give Missouri's offense a short field, and not be forced to go 70 or 80 yards to score every time.

YOU'LL BE SAD IF ...
- Missouri gets ahead early. Nebraska showed a lot of heart last week in coming back against Virginia Tech. But the Hokies aren't the Tigers. If NU gets behind early against Missouri, the danger of the floodgates opening and the game getting ugly in a hurry are real. It is imperative that Nebraska is no worse than one score down at halftime.
- Tiger wideouts are running free. I suspect NU will be in a lot of nickel and dime coverages on Saturday. Missouri's offense is predicated on a quick drop and throw when they pass, meaning pressure on Daniel is very difficult. If Nebraska's secondary can be physical with Missouri's receivers on the line of scrimmage, they can set a tone and disrupt the timing of the Tigers' offense.
- Nebraska gets no turnovers. Make no mistake, Missouri is a better team on both sides of the ball than Nebraska. While Nebraska matches up fairly well with Missouri (questionable MU defense versus questionable NU offense, strong MU offense versus strong NU defense), the critical advantage for Nebraska is the Sea of Red. If Nebraska can turn Missouri over, particularly early, and keep the crowd involved and pressuring the Tigers, the elements of an upset are present.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: Missouri 38, Nebraska 30

GBR, baby.